They have asked more than 100 top-level experts what they think about the future of the pandemic and the coronavirus: this is what they have answered
After a year of pandemic, there is a curious paradox: we know many things, much more than 12 months ago; But we have huge doubts about almost everything that has to do with the future. The arrival of vaccines and the good results of countries like Israel make us optimistic, but What is reasonable to expect in the coming months and years?
The ‘Nature’ magazine just published a poll 119 immunologists, infectious disease researchers, and virologists working with the coronavirus. The results, although it is still a survey, help us control the possible biases of each professional and give us a very interesting overview of what the future of the pandemic looks like from the “battlefield”.
What do the experts who are working on the virus think?
Input, almost 90% of them think that SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic. In other words, it will continue to circulate around the world for the next few years. To be more precise, 60% believe that this endemic future is very probable, 29% that it is probable, 5%, unlikely, and 1%, very unlikely. There is, yes, 6% of those surveyed think that there is not enough information to estimate it for sure.
Something more diversity of opinions we see when asked if they see likely that we are able to eliminate the virus from some regions. There though 35% see it unlikely and 17% very unlikely, 39% see it as probable (25%) or very likely (14%). In this case, the percentage of undecided is around 10%.
The question of the fundamental factors that could help the virus to become endemic also seems very interesting. In this question, most researchers believe that these will be the escape mechanisms of the immune response of the virus (71%), the weakened immunity of patients (59%) and the problems of vaccine distribution (45%). The good news is that only 14% believe that animal reservoirs will be a major problem.
There are many possible scenarios and many ways these scenarios can crystallize. That shows in the responses. However, seen as a whole, the answers seem to be converging around a world in which the coronavirus (with greater or lesser virulence) is still here among us. The details depend, in large part, on what we do today.
Imagen | Prasesh Shiwakoti Lomash
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