Survey: Allianz Trade: World trade under pressure from two sides
Hamburg According to German exporters, the Ukraine war has once again significantly exacerbated problems such as delivery bottlenecks or high energy and transport costs. Nevertheless, many companies continue to expect an increase in sales this year, according to a survey by the credit insurer Allianz Trade (formerly Euler Hermes). However, the number of optimists fell after the Russian attack on Ukraine.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the renewed outbreak of Covid-19 in China hit world trade twice as hard with lower volumes and higher prices,” explained Ana Boata, economist at Allianz Trade. Due to detours due to the war and port closures, there are long transport times. “This means that delays and high freight rates will persist in world trade longer than originally expected – also due to the high energy prices.”
About 80 percent of the companies surveyed see the high energy prices as a challenge for their export activities. More than half (52 percent) expect costs to continue to rise. As a result of the global economic recovery after the Corona crisis in 2020, energy prices had already risen significantly. After the beginning of the war, there were further price jumps.
According to the survey, around twice as many exporters as before the Ukraine war are now worried about increasing payment defaults (58 percent) by customers and disruptions to the supply chains (47 percent). Added to this are the sharp rises in transport costs. “Most German companies are assuming that there will be no signs of relaxation in transport costs or times in 2022,” reported Milo Bogaerts, head of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
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More than half of the companies (53 percent) assume that the situation will worsen once the conflict in Ukraine breaks out.” Before the start of the war, this was only the case for about every third company.
Despite the burdens, the vast majority of those surveyed (84 percent) continue to expect sales growth from their exports. Before the Ukraine war, however, it was still 93 percent. 16 percent of German exporters now expect falling revenues.
Allianz Trade surveyed a total of more than 2,500 companies in six countries in two waves – before and after the start of the war – about their assessment of the export prospects for this year.
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